Integrated read across sell-through, search demand, web traffic and shipment visibility
US sell-through, forward outlook, category and price signals, search demand, web traffic, competitor scale and supply visibility
| Executive priority | Evidence to use | Decision / action |
|---|---|---|
Protect the 2027 plan Inventory, margin and downside control | S&P's operating base is 727K US eBike units in 2027, down another 7.9%. PFB actuals show dollars outperforming units, which implies ASP/mix resilience rather than broad volume recovery. | Use the S&P unit case for inventory capacity and downside planning. Protect ASP through mix, bundles, financing and service value; avoid relying on category-wide growth. |
Concentrate the offer Use case and core price bands | Transit/Fitness and Cargo are the clearest tracked growth pools. External price signals center the market opportunity between $1.5K and $3.5K, while PFB does not provide price-band actuals. | Prioritize commuter/utility propositions in the $1.5K-$3.5K ladder. Differentiate with range, comfort, cargo utility, financing and dealer-backed service instead of price alone. |
Convert online momentum Traffic to profitable sales | Velotric records 9.3% July traffic share, below June but still above its 7.7% Apr-Jul period average. Aventon remains the nearest traffic benchmark; detailed channel data is currently available through June. | Reconcile Similarweb traffic and Google brand momentum with Shopify/Domo conversion, eBike units, net sales, AOV, CAC and new-customer mix. Diagnose the gap by source, landing page, model and price. |
Build owned and local demand Organic, reviews, dealers and service | Generic eBike demand drives 50.5% of observed clicks; local retail/service intent is rising fastest. Search is 45.8% of market traffic, and Velotric's audience is 51% age 45+. | Connect "best ebike," review and comparison demand to buying guides, model pages, dealer locator, test rides, service reassurance and accessory/bundle attach. |
Monitor supply and competitor scale Early-warning signals only | ImportYeti coverage is incomplete. Shopify order-number deltas suggest Lectric and Aventon run above Velotric's observed all-order pace, but they are full-site proxies rather than confirmed eBike sales. | Use both sources as directional risk flags for promotion, inventory and competitive timing. Do not convert them into market share until entity coverage and order-to-eBike relationships are validated. |
Interpretation rule: use each source in its native unit. Sales, forecast units, revenue estimates, search indexes, traffic, inferred orders and shipments triangulate decisions but must not be added or averaged into one market-size number.
Current demand, channel direction and forward market signals
2026 YTD dollars indexed to January = 100
What changes the operating plan
United States, all channels · May 2026 forecast vintage
| Quarter | Status | Quarter units | FY share | Cumulative units | Cumulative share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q1 | Actual | 161.4K | 20.5% | 161.4K | 20.5% |
Q2 | Forecast | 235.8K | 29.9% | 397.1K | 50.3% |
Q3 | Forecast | 199.0K | 25.2% | 596.1K | 75.5% |
Q4 | Forecast | 192.9K | 24.5% | 789.0K | 100.0% |
Source: PeopleForBikes / S&P Global Dashboard, May 2026, Series_current. Quarterly values sum to the 789K full-year eBike unit forecast.
Jan-Apr 2026 actual sell-through unless marked directional
| Market scope | Channel | YTD dollars | YTD units | ASP | Dollar mix | YoY: $ / units | Comparison |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
All tracked products PFB Dashboard | Total | $1.702B | 22.83M | $74.55 | 100% | -1.5% / -8.1% | Exact |
All tracked products | IBD | $1.010B | 10.77M | $93.72 | 59.3% | -1.9% / -11.4% | Exact |
All tracked products | ROM | $692.6M | 12.06M | $57.43 | 40.7% | -0.9% / -5.0% | Exact |
eBike only Tracked IBD + ROM | Total | $228.0M | 134,120 | $1,700 | 100% | +1.2% / -0.6% | Exact |
eBike only | IBD | $176.2M | 66,429 | $2,653 | 77.3% | +0.7% / +4.9% | Exact |
eBike only | ROM | $51.8M | 67,691 | $765 | 22.7% | +2.7% / -5.4% | Exact |
Complete bikes PFB PDF supplement | DTC | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +15% / -2% | Directional |
IBD and ROM are directly comparable because they use the same PFB/Circana Dashboard period and definition. DTC is not included in those totals; the PDF only provides rounded complete-bike growth, not an exact eBike channel size.
2025 base, 2026 current-year estimate and 2027 forward estimate · full-year, all channels
| Source / metric | 2025 market size | 2026 market size | 2026 YoY | 2027 market size | 2027 YoY | Use in plan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PFB / S&P Global Units · all-channel forecast | 939K units | 789K units | -16.0% | 727K units | -7.9% | Operating base |
Revenue · all-channel estimate | $1.142B | $1.249B* | +9.4%* | $1.367B* | +9.4%* | Revenue base |
Revenue · all-channel estimate | $2.000B | $2.156B* | +7.8%* | $2.324B* | +7.8%* | Secondary |
Revenue · broad market definition | $3.780B | $4.060B | +7.4% | $4.357B* | +7.3%* | High case |
Revenue · older 2023 forecast | $3.461B* | $4.001B* | +15.6%* | $4.625B* | +15.6%* | Historical upside |
The Insight Partners Revenue · provided 2023 report | $2.521B* | $3.033B* | +20.3%* | $3.648B* | +20.3%* | Historical upside |
*CAGR-derived estimate: the source publishes a base value and multi-year CAGR rather than a discrete annual figure. The 2027 revenue range of $1.37B-$4.63B demonstrates material definition uncertainty. For planning, use S&P as the unit-volume base and IMARC as the primary revenue scenario. No source currently provides reliable full-year 2025-2027 IBD, ROM and DTC market sizes separately.
All channels tracked by PFB Dashboard, Jan-Apr 2026 actuals
| Bike type | YTD dollars | Dollar mix | YTD units | Dollar YoY | Unit YoY | ASP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Electric bicycles | $228.0M | 22.7% | 134,120 | +1.2% | -0.6% | $1,700 |
Mountain | $221.8M | 22.1% | 384,951 | -7.4% | -11.7% | $576 |
Road | $207.8M | 20.7% | 76,905 | +5.8% | +1.0% | $2,703 |
Children's | $189.7M | 18.9% | 1.33M | +6.3% | -5.0% | $142 |
Transit / Fitness | $82.1M | 8.2% | 127,271 | -6.1% | -22.1% | $645 |
BMX | $38.6M | 3.8% | 250,244 | -3.5% | -16.7% | $154 |
Lifestyle / Leisure | $20.0M | 2.0% | 84,711 | -12.1% | -36.2% | $236 |
Frames | $9.4M | 0.9% | 4,215 | -13.7% | -1.1% | $2,238 |
Other bicycles | $5.6M | 0.6% | 9,125 | -40.8% | -52.5% | $619 |
Tandem | $0.2M | <0.1% | 297 | -12.6% | -37.7% | $791 |
Complete bicycles total approximately $1.003B, or 58.9% of the $1.702B tracked cycling market. Electric bicycles are the largest dollar type, narrowly ahead of Mountain.
Tracked IBD + ROM, Jan-Apr 2026
| eBike category | YTD dollars | Dollar mix | YTD units | Dollar YoY | Unit YoY | ASP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Transit / Fitness | $90.5M | 39.7% | 52,965 | +16.2% | +16.7% | $1,708 |
Mountain | $60.7M | 26.6% | 23,179 | -13.9% | -15.9% | $2,620 |
Road | $22.3M | 9.8% | 4,268 | +1.0% | +6.2% | $5,236 |
Other | $16.2M | 7.1% | 19,641 | +35.7% | +43.9% | $826 |
Cargo | $14.5M | 6.3% | 5,947 | +11.7% | +29.9% | $2,434 |
Folding | $12.3M | 5.4% | 15,032 | -29.8% | -44.2% | $816 |
Lifestyle / Leisure | $11.5M | 5.0% | 13,088 | -7.8% | +2.0% | $877 |
Tracked IBD + ROM sell-through, Jan-Apr 2026 · class means motor-assist configuration, not product tier
| eBike category | Class | YTD units | Within-type mix | Unit YoY | ASP | ASP YoY | Dollar YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Transit / Fitness | Class 1 | 23,426 | 44.2% | -18.8% | $1,531 | +2.4% | -16.9% |
| Class 2 | 14,824 | 28.0% | +103.7% | $1,306 | -5.7% | +92.2% | |
| Class 3 | 14,715 | 27.8% | +59.2% | $2,394 | -10.1% | +43.1% | |
Mountain | Class 1 | 15,653 | 67.5% | -15.4% | $3,326 | +4.0% | -12.0% |
| Class 2 | 2,475 | 10.7% | -59.4% | $1,077 | +6.1% | -57.0% | |
| Class 3 | 5,051 | 21.8% | +69.9% | $1,190 | -32.0% | +15.6% | |
Other | Class 1 | 7,627 | 38.8% | +44.2% | $761 | +19.1% | +71.8% |
| Class 2 | 10,275 | 52.3% | +48.3% | $773 | -8.8% | +35.2% | |
| Class 3 | 1,738 | 8.9% | +22.0% | $1,423 | -24.8% | -8.3% | |
Folding | Class 1 | 2,922 | 19.4% | -65.9% | $878 | +32.2% | -54.9% |
| Class 2 | 10,164 | 67.6% | -38.9% | $720 | +14.2% | -30.3% | |
| Class 3 | 1,946 | 12.9% | +14.1% | $1,226 | +63.2% | +86.2% | |
Lifestyle / Leisure | Class 1 | 2,821 | 21.6% | -51.9% | $1,118 | -11.4% | -57.4% |
| Class 2 | 8,834 | 67.5% | +32.1% | $627 | -11.2% | +17.4% | |
| Class 3 | 1,433 | 11.0% | +412.1% | $1,947 | +58.8% | +713.1% | |
Cargo | Class 1 | 1,579 | 26.6% | -32.7% | $4,114 | +21.8% | -18.1% |
| Class 2 | 3,388 | 57.0% | +149.4% | $1,599 | -7.2% | +131.4% | |
| Class 3 | 980 | 16.5% | +12.5% | $2,619 | -15.1% | -4.6% | |
Road | Class 1 | 2,442 | 57.2% | +33.5% | $5,871 | +9.4% | +46.1% |
| Class 2 | Net -6* | N/M | N/M | $1,420 | N/M | N/M | |
| Class 3 | 1,832 | 42.9% | -16.2% | $4,377 | -22.2% | -34.9% |
How to read: Class 1 is pedal-assist to 20 mph; Class 2 includes throttle assistance to 20 mph; Class 3 provides assistance to 28 mph under the standard three-class framework. The market is shifting away from Class 1 toward Class 2 and Class 3, led by Transit/Fitness and Cargo. Folding weakness is concentrated in Class 1/2, while its Class 3 remains positive. *Road Class 2 reflects a very small negative net-sales adjustment and is not meaningful demand. Source: PeopleForBikes / Circana Dashboard, Ebikes Summary.
Share of Jan-Apr tracked market dollars
| Segment | YTD dollars | P&A mix | Dollar YoY | Unit YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Parts | $205.9M | 38.9% | -2.4% | -9.8% |
Accessories | $166.3M | 31.4% | +3.8% | -7.4% |
Rider gear | $157.4M | 29.7% | +15.0% | +1.7% |
The 31.1% share is the broader bicycle market's P&A dollar share. It is not an eBike accessory attach rate and does not represent Velotric customer behavior.
United States, all channels, May 2026 forecast vintage
| Forecast category | 2026 units | Share of bikes | YoY | Revision vs Feb |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Total bikes | 10.530M | 100% | -8.1% | -246K |
Children & BMX | 7.059M | 67.0% | -1.5% | -98K |
Other bike types | 2.682M | 25.5% | -20.0% | -114K |
eBikes | 789K | 7.5% | -16.0% | -34K |
Largest P&A value pools, Jan-Apr 2026
| Subcategory | Segment | YTD dollars | P&A mix | Dollar YoY | Unit YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Helmets | Rider gear | $117.4M | 22.2% | +17.2% | +2.6% |
Components | Parts | $78.8M | 14.9% | -5.3% | -11.5% |
Tires / Tubes | Parts | $64.4M | 12.2% | -1.3% | -9.0% |
Bike footwear | Rider gear | $31.5M | 5.9% | +11.0% | +10.4% |
Repairs / Maintenance | Accessories | $31.0M | 5.8% | -0.9% | -7.8% |
Locks | Accessories | $28.4M | 5.4% | +4.2% | -3.2% |
Bike lights | Accessories | $23.3M | 4.4% | +11.6% | -2.3% |
Pedals | Parts | $21.1M | 4.0% | +5.2% | -7.8% |
Trainers / Rollers | Accessories | $16.9M | 3.2% | +27.8% | -15.5% |
Helmets are the largest P&A subcategory and are growing in both dollars and units. Several accessory categories show dollar growth with falling units, indicating price/mix rather than broad volume expansion.
Actual sell-through and external market-size estimates
| Source | Period | Coverage | Dollar signal | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
PFB / Circana | Jan-Apr 2026 | eBike, tracked IBD + ROM | $228.0M Actual sell-through | Current partial-year actual |
PFB April PDF | Jan-Apr 2026 | DTC, complete bikes | +15% YoY No exact market size | Channel direction only |
Insight Partners | 2022 → 2030 | US eBike, all channels | $1.448B → $6.340B 2023 report vintage | Historical long-range scenario |
IMARC | 2025 → 2034 | US eBike, all channels | $1.142B → $2.562B 9.39% CAGR | External scenario range |
Global Market Insights | 2025 → 2035 | US eBike, all channels | $2.000B base 7.8% CAGR | Secondary revenue scenario |
Mordor Intelligence | 2025 → 2031 | US eBike, all channels | $3.780B → $5.780B 7.32% CAGR | High market-value scenario |
Retail actuals, full-year forecasts and pre-retail imports
| Source | Period | Coverage | Unit signal | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
PFB / Circana | Jan-Apr 2026 | eBike, tracked IBD + ROM | 134,120 units Actual sell-through | Current partial-year actual |
PFB / S&P Global | Full-year 2026 | US eBike, all channels | 789K units -16.0% YoY | Operating forecast |
BRAIN / LEVA / BMR | Calendar 2025 | US imports, pre-retail | 1.3M-2.2M units Sources materially disagree | Supply-chain range only |
These values should not be averaged or added. PFB/Circana is partial-year tracked retail actual; S&P is a full-year all-channel forecast; external dollar reports use separate market definitions; imports are pre-retail supply signals.
Market terms, eBike categories, competitor brands and emerging queries
Three-year weekly raw index within one Google comparison set
“bike” sets the scale and compresses lower-volume eBike terms. Use this chart for direction and seasonality, not keyword volume ratios.
Electric bike, cargo, fat tire, folding and commuter queries
Raw index from the category comparison set. Low-volume terms may appear below 1.
Latest four and thirteen completed weeks · United States
| Keyword | Signal group | 4W index | M/M (4W) | Q/Q (13W) | Y/Y (4W) |
|---|
Definitions: 4W index is the average Google Search Interest Index across the latest four completed weeks. M/M compares it with the preceding four weeks; Q/Q compares the latest rolling 13 completed weeks with the preceding 13 weeks; Y/Y compares the latest four weeks with the equivalent four-week period one year earlier. Core naming and category/use-case rows come from separate Google comparison sets, so compare direction within a row rather than index levels across the two groups. Values reported by Google as <1 use 0.5 for calculation.
Official Google brand topics / company entities · recommended comparison
Official Google Topics and company entities reduce naming ambiguity. Monthly batches are reconciled through the shared Aventon topic.
Latest four completed weeks, ranked by selected-version Share of Search
| Brand | 4W index | 4W Share | Index vs prior 4W | 13W index | Index vs prior 13W | 3Y peak* |
|---|
Timing: 4W and 13W metrics use the latest completed weeks. *The three-year peak is derived from complete weekly exports aggregated by month and provides long-term context; its index scale is not directly comparable with the one-year weekly index. Definitions: Brand entity uses official Google Topics / Companies. Short name uses literal terms and includes more non-brand noise.
Ranked by Rising growth, with Breakout queries first · not ranked by search volume
| Rank | Query | Growth | Signal type | Business read |
|---|
| Query | Rising | TOP index |
|---|
Rising measures growth. TOP index measures relative popularity among related queries, not actual search volume.
Visible definitions for apples-to-apples interpretation
Competitorlist Custom Industry · United States · traffic channels, demand trends and demographics
What changed in current traffic momentum and player concentration
Brand rank inside Competitorlist Custom Industry · M/M shown where available
| Brand | Traffic share | Avg monthly visits | M/M | Q/Q | Y/Y | Direct traffic | PPC spend | Returning visitors |
|---|
M/M and Y/Y use the monthly traffic series through July 2026. Apr 2025-Jun 2026 comes from Website Analysis chart estimates; July uses the rounded monthly visits displayed in Market Analysis Players. Q/Q compares the latest complete quarter, 2026Q2 vs 2026Q1.
July 2026 vs June 2026 · latest complete quarter 2026Q2 vs 2026Q1 · July 2026 vs July 2025
| Brand | Jul 2026 visits | M/M | Q/Q | Y/Y | 2026Q2 visits | Source |
|---|
Monthly trend now covers all 12 Custom Industry players from the Traffic Over Time chart. Use this module for velocity; use Players for period-level size and share.
Brand-level channel mix across 10 core eBike domains
Brand-level channel mix uses Similarweb Website Analysis data for Jan-Jun 2026. The market rollups at right remain the Custom Industry benchmark.
Business-level acquisition buckets
Brand-level Similarweb Website Analysis data · 10 core eBike domains · Jan-Jun 2026
| Brand | Total Search | Paid media | Direct | Organic Search | Paid Search | Paid Social | Top channel |
|---|
Brand-level channel mix uses the earlier Similarweb Website Analysis scrape for the 10 core eBike domains. It is shown as peer context alongside the Custom Industry channel benchmark.
Non-Branded Keywords Top 100, grouped by search intent
| Theme | Terms | Clicks | Share | Median change |
|---|
Where demand is being captured today
| Leader group | Terms | Clicks | Share |
|---|
YouTube leads the top generic eBike terms, reinforcing the importance of reviews and creator content for early demand capture.
Which brands appear as the visible leader for Top 100 non-branded demand terms
| Domain | Traffic share | Leader terms | Leader share | Capture index | Captured terms |
|---|
Capture index compares demand-leader click share with traffic share. 100 means demand capture is proportional to current traffic share; below 100 means under-captured in visible Top 100 demand leaders.
Top 25 of the Similarweb visible Top 100
| Rank | Search term | Clicks | Share | Change | Theme | Leader |
|---|
Gender and age concentration by player
| Domain | Female | Male | 25-64 | 45+ | Female index |
|---|
How to use this signal in planning
Demand Trends currently reflects Non-Branded Keywords Top 100. Newly discovered / Trending terms were visible in UI but did not change with URL forcing during this scrape.
ImportYeti customs shipment matrix mapped to the Similarweb competitor list
Brand × month estimated units inferred from customs shipment counts and BOL quantity samples
| Brand | ImportYeti entity | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Estimated total | Status |
|---|
Pending cells mean the brand has shipment counts but no usable BOL quantity sample for unit calibration. Raw shipment counts remain in the workbook for audit.
What is usable now vs what still needs API/login access
H1 2026 monthly customs shipment counts, paired with all-time HS-code product segment mix
| Brand | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | H1 total | Segment mix | Status |
|---|
Segment mix uses ImportYeti Product Breakdown HS-code rows: Complete eBike / vehicle = HS 8711, Frame / bicycle = HS 8712, Parts / accessory = HS 8714 plus related parts/accessory codes, Battery / electrical = HS 8507 / 85, and Other captures non-core categories. Segment mix is all-time importer-page composition; monthly H1 trend is total customs shipments.
Visible ImportYeti summary data already captured from verified company pages
| Brand | ImportYeti entity | All-time sea shipments | Last shipment | Coverage | Country mix | Status |
|---|
This is the currently usable customs dataset. It is not H1-only and should be read as supply-side visibility, not market share or sell-through.
Recent shipment-level records with containers, quantity and plausibility-checked unit estimates
| Brand | Detail rows | H1 rows | H1 core rows | Usable unit rows | Date range | Containers | Raw quantity | Recent plausible units | H1 plausible units | Units / container |
|---|
This is the recent BOL detail sample exposed on the ImportYeti company page, not full historical shipment detail. Plausible units exclude rows with unsupported units or unrealistic units-per-container ratios.
Top ImportYeti product categories from the downloadable Product Breakdown chart data
| Brand | ImportYeti entity | Top HS code | Description | Shipments | Share | Chart |
|---|
HS code mix helps separate full e-bike / vehicle-related imports from batteries, parts and non-core categories.
Similarweb competitor domains mapped to customs importer pages
| Brand | Domain | Entity | Status | Attribution note |
|---|
All-time visible shipment totals captured before the pageview limit
Shopify order-number cadence proxy compared with the Velotric Shopify order pool on the same time window
Same-window comparison
| Brand | Days | Competitor proxy orders | Proxy / day | Velotric Shopify orders | Velotric / day | Competitor / Velotric |
|---|
The competitor-to-Velotric index compares the full-site competitor order-number proxy against Velotric's all-app, all-status Shopify order pool. It is directional and should not be interpreted as a unit-sales or revenue-share ratio.
Use as a competitive demand cadence signal, then triangulate with traffic and supply data
Each brand uses its own first-to-last sample window; compare daily rates and index before comparing totals
| Brand | Observed window | Days | Proxy orders | Proxy / day | Velotric Shopify / day | Competitor / Velotric |
|---|
Audit table of the underlying proxy calculations
| Brand | Start | End | Days | Proxy orders | Proxy / day | Velotric Shopify | Index | Quality |
|---|
Intervals shorter than 7 days are labeled short window/high volatility. The Black Friday-adjacent one-day intervals are useful as promotion intensity signals, but not as long-run rates.
Inputs that define this source
How this signal should and should not be used