Integrated read across sell-through, search demand, web traffic and shipment visibility
PFB/Circana sell-through, Google Trends demand index, Similarweb traffic/channel data and ImportYeti supply visibility
| Signal | Strategic implication | Velotric action | Source caveat |
|---|---|---|---|
PFB / Circana Jan-Apr 2026 actual sell-through | Do not plan as if the whole market is expanding. Unit pressure means growth must come from share gain, channel mix and ASP discipline. | Prioritize Transit/Fitness, Cargo and high-trust commuter offers; protect margin through bundles and dealer/service value instead of blanket discounting. | PFB Dashboard covers tracked IBD + ROM. DTC appears only as a rounded PDF growth signal, not exact eBike channel size. |
Similarweb traffic Apr 2025-Jun 2026, US | Competitor traffic is concentrated: top 3 hold 63.7% and top 5 hold 83.0%. Velotric's Q2 acceleration creates a real opening below the largest incumbents. | Use Aventon as the immediate online-share benchmark; monitor Velotric M/M, Q/Q, Y/Y traffic against conversion rate, AOV and CAC inside Shopify/Domo. | Traffic is an engagement proxy, not revenue or units. Monthly traffic trends are extracted from Similarweb page-chart estimates. |
Google Trends Latest completed week Jul 19, 2026 | Velotric's brand-search momentum is improving, but the share-of-search gap to Specialized, Trek, Lectric and Aventon remains large. | Keep upper/mid-funnel brand building live while tightening conquest and comparison pages against Aventon, Lectric and Rad Power Bikes. | Google Trends is an index within comparison sets, not actual search volume. Brand entity and short-name versions should stay separate. |
Demand themes Similarweb Top 100 non-branded terms | Demand starts broad, then moves into reviews, marketplaces and local/service discovery. Generic eBike demand is 50.5% of clicks; local retail/service is rising fastest. | Build a connected path from "best ebike" and YouTube/review demand to owned buying guides, dealer locator, service reassurance and accessory attach pages. | Top 100 demand terms show visible leaders only. Velotric currently has no visible Top 100 non-branded leader terms in this scrape. |
ImportYeti Scraped Jul 28, 2026 | Supply-side visibility is still too incomplete for share conclusions. Aventon and Lectric have usable captured histories; several peers are blocked or sparse. | Use ImportYeti only as a risk flag for competitor inventory timing until Velotric and peer importer mappings are completed and validated. | Import data is pre-retail, shipment-based and coverage-constrained. It should not be added to sell-through or traffic metrics. |
Interpretation rule: PFB is sales actual/forecast, Google Trends is search-interest index, Similarweb is traffic/channel proxy, and ImportYeti is pre-retail supply visibility. These sources triangulate strategy but should not be merged into one market-size number.
Current demand, channel direction and forward market signals
2026 YTD dollars indexed to January = 100
What changes the operating plan
United States, all channels · May 2026 forecast vintage
| Quarter | Status | Quarter units | FY share | Cumulative units | Cumulative share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Q1 | Actual | 161.4K | 20.5% | 161.4K | 20.5% |
Q2 | Forecast | 235.8K | 29.9% | 397.1K | 50.3% |
Q3 | Forecast | 199.0K | 25.2% | 596.1K | 75.5% |
Q4 | Forecast | 192.9K | 24.5% | 789.0K | 100.0% |
Source: PeopleForBikes / S&P Global Dashboard, May 2026, Series_current. Quarterly values sum to the 789K full-year eBike unit forecast.
Jan-Apr 2026 actual sell-through unless marked directional
| Market scope | Channel | YTD dollars | YTD units | ASP | Dollar mix | YoY: $ / units | Comparison |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
All tracked products PFB Dashboard | Total | $1.702B | 22.83M | $74.55 | 100% | -1.5% / -8.1% | Exact |
All tracked products | IBD | $1.010B | 10.77M | $93.72 | 59.3% | -1.9% / -11.4% | Exact |
All tracked products | ROM | $692.6M | 12.06M | $57.43 | 40.7% | -0.9% / -5.0% | Exact |
eBike only Tracked IBD + ROM | Total | $228.0M | 134,120 | $1,700 | 100% | +1.2% / -0.6% | Exact |
eBike only | IBD | $176.2M | 66,429 | $2,653 | 77.3% | +0.7% / +4.9% | Exact |
eBike only | ROM | $51.8M | 67,691 | $765 | 22.7% | +2.7% / -5.4% | Exact |
Complete bikes PFB PDF supplement | DTC | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | +15% / -2% | Directional |
IBD and ROM are directly comparable because they use the same PFB/Circana Dashboard period and definition. DTC is not included in those totals; the PDF only provides rounded complete-bike growth, not an exact eBike channel size.
2025 base, 2026 current-year estimate and 2027 forward estimate · full-year, all channels
| Source / metric | 2025 market size | 2026 market size | 2026 YoY | 2027 market size | 2027 YoY | Use in plan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PFB / S&P Global Units · all-channel forecast | 939K units | 789K units | -16.0% | 727K units | -7.9% | Operating base |
Revenue · all-channel estimate | $1.142B | $1.249B* | +9.4%* | $1.367B* | +9.4%* | Revenue base |
Revenue · all-channel estimate | $2.000B | $2.156B* | +7.8%* | $2.324B* | +7.8%* | Secondary |
Revenue · broad market definition | $3.780B | $4.060B | +7.4% | $4.357B* | +7.3%* | High case |
Revenue · older 2023 forecast | $3.461B* | $4.001B* | +15.6%* | $4.625B* | +15.6%* | Historical upside |
The Insight Partners Revenue · provided 2023 report | $2.521B* | $3.033B* | +20.3%* | $3.648B* | +20.3%* | Historical upside |
*CAGR-derived estimate: the source publishes a base value and multi-year CAGR rather than a discrete annual figure. The 2027 revenue range of $1.37B-$4.63B demonstrates material definition uncertainty. For planning, use S&P as the unit-volume base and IMARC as the primary revenue scenario. No source currently provides reliable full-year 2025-2027 IBD, ROM and DTC market sizes separately.
All channels tracked by PFB Dashboard, Jan-Apr 2026 actuals
| Bike type | YTD dollars | Dollar mix | YTD units | Dollar YoY | Unit YoY | ASP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Electric bicycles | $228.0M | 22.7% | 134,120 | +1.2% | -0.6% | $1,700 |
Mountain | $221.8M | 22.1% | 384,951 | -7.4% | -11.7% | $576 |
Road | $207.8M | 20.7% | 76,905 | +5.8% | +1.0% | $2,703 |
Children's | $189.7M | 18.9% | 1.33M | +6.3% | -5.0% | $142 |
Transit / Fitness | $82.1M | 8.2% | 127,271 | -6.1% | -22.1% | $645 |
BMX | $38.6M | 3.8% | 250,244 | -3.5% | -16.7% | $154 |
Lifestyle / Leisure | $20.0M | 2.0% | 84,711 | -12.1% | -36.2% | $236 |
Frames | $9.4M | 0.9% | 4,215 | -13.7% | -1.1% | $2,238 |
Other bicycles | $5.6M | 0.6% | 9,125 | -40.8% | -52.5% | $619 |
Tandem | $0.2M | <0.1% | 297 | -12.6% | -37.7% | $791 |
Complete bicycles total approximately $1.003B, or 58.9% of the $1.702B tracked cycling market. Electric bicycles are the largest dollar type, narrowly ahead of Mountain.
Tracked IBD + ROM, Jan-Apr 2026
| eBike category | YTD dollars | Dollar mix | YTD units | Dollar YoY | Unit YoY | ASP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Transit / Fitness | $90.5M | 39.7% | 52,965 | +16.2% | +16.7% | $1,708 |
Mountain | $60.7M | 26.6% | 23,179 | -13.9% | -15.9% | $2,620 |
Road | $22.3M | 9.8% | 4,268 | +1.0% | +6.2% | $5,236 |
Other | $16.2M | 7.1% | 19,641 | +35.7% | +43.9% | $826 |
Cargo | $14.5M | 6.3% | 5,947 | +11.7% | +29.9% | $2,434 |
Folding | $12.3M | 5.4% | 15,032 | -29.8% | -44.2% | $816 |
Lifestyle / Leisure | $11.5M | 5.0% | 13,088 | -7.8% | +2.0% | $877 |
Share of Jan-Apr tracked market dollars
| Segment | YTD dollars | P&A mix | Dollar YoY | Unit YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Parts | $205.9M | 38.9% | -2.4% | -9.8% |
Accessories | $166.3M | 31.4% | +3.8% | -7.4% |
Rider gear | $157.4M | 29.7% | +15.0% | +1.7% |
The 31.1% share is the broader bicycle market's P&A dollar share. It is not an eBike accessory attach rate and does not represent Velotric customer behavior.
United States, all channels, May 2026 forecast vintage
| Forecast category | 2026 units | Share of bikes | YoY | Revision vs Feb |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Total bikes | 10.530M | 100% | -8.1% | -246K |
Children & BMX | 7.059M | 67.0% | -1.5% | -98K |
Other bike types | 2.682M | 25.5% | -20.0% | -114K |
eBikes | 789K | 7.5% | -16.0% | -34K |
Largest P&A value pools, Jan-Apr 2026
| Subcategory | Segment | YTD dollars | P&A mix | Dollar YoY | Unit YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Helmets | Rider gear | $117.4M | 22.2% | +17.2% | +2.6% |
Components | Parts | $78.8M | 14.9% | -5.3% | -11.5% |
Tires / Tubes | Parts | $64.4M | 12.2% | -1.3% | -9.0% |
Bike footwear | Rider gear | $31.5M | 5.9% | +11.0% | +10.4% |
Repairs / Maintenance | Accessories | $31.0M | 5.8% | -0.9% | -7.8% |
Locks | Accessories | $28.4M | 5.4% | +4.2% | -3.2% |
Bike lights | Accessories | $23.3M | 4.4% | +11.6% | -2.3% |
Pedals | Parts | $21.1M | 4.0% | +5.2% | -7.8% |
Trainers / Rollers | Accessories | $16.9M | 3.2% | +27.8% | -15.5% |
Helmets are the largest P&A subcategory and are growing in both dollars and units. Several accessory categories show dollar growth with falling units, indicating price/mix rather than broad volume expansion.
Actual sell-through and external market-size estimates
| Source | Period | Coverage | Dollar signal | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
PFB / Circana | Jan-Apr 2026 | eBike, tracked IBD + ROM | $228.0M Actual sell-through | Current partial-year actual |
PFB April PDF | Jan-Apr 2026 | DTC, complete bikes | +15% YoY No exact market size | Channel direction only |
Insight Partners | 2022 → 2030 | US eBike, all channels | $1.448B → $6.340B 2023 report vintage | Historical long-range scenario |
IMARC | 2025 → 2034 | US eBike, all channels | $1.142B → $2.562B 9.39% CAGR | External scenario range |
Global Market Insights | 2025 → 2035 | US eBike, all channels | $2.000B base 7.8% CAGR | Secondary revenue scenario |
Mordor Intelligence | 2025 → 2031 | US eBike, all channels | $3.780B → $5.780B 7.32% CAGR | High market-value scenario |
Retail actuals, full-year forecasts and pre-retail imports
| Source | Period | Coverage | Unit signal | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
PFB / Circana | Jan-Apr 2026 | eBike, tracked IBD + ROM | 134,120 units Actual sell-through | Current partial-year actual |
PFB / S&P Global | Full-year 2026 | US eBike, all channels | 789K units -16.0% YoY | Operating forecast |
BRAIN / LEVA / BMR | Calendar 2025 | US imports, pre-retail | 1.3M-2.2M units Sources materially disagree | Supply-chain range only |
These values should not be averaged or added. PFB/Circana is partial-year tracked retail actual; S&P is a full-year all-channel forecast; external dollar reports use separate market definitions; imports are pre-retail supply signals.
Market terms, eBike categories, competitor brands and emerging queries
Three-year weekly raw index within one Google comparison set
“bike” sets the scale and compresses lower-volume eBike terms. Use this chart for direction and seasonality, not keyword volume ratios.
Electric bike, cargo, fat tire, folding and commuter queries
Raw index from the category comparison set. Low-volume terms may appear below 1.
Latest four completed weeks · United States
| Keyword | Signal group | 4W index | M/M (4W) | Y/Y (4W) |
|---|
Definitions: 4W index is the average Google Search Interest Index across the latest four completed weeks. M/M compares it with the preceding four weeks; Y/Y compares it with the equivalent four-week period one year earlier. Core naming and category/use-case rows come from separate Google comparison sets, so compare direction within a row rather than index levels across the two groups. Values reported by Google as <1 use 0.5 for calculation.
Official Google brand topics / company entities · recommended comparison
Official Google Topics and company entities reduce naming ambiguity. Monthly batches are reconciled through the shared Aventon topic.
Latest four completed weeks, ranked by selected-version Share of Search
| Brand | 4W index | 4W Share | Index vs prior 4W | 13W index | Index vs prior 13W | 3Y peak* |
|---|
Timing: 4W and 13W metrics use the latest completed weeks through July 19, 2026. *The three-year peak comes from a separate monthly export and provides long-term context; its index scale is not directly comparable with the weekly index. Definitions: Brand entity uses official Google Topics / Companies. Short name uses literal terms and includes more non-brand noise.
Ranked by Rising growth, with Breakout queries first · not ranked by search volume
| Rank | Query | Growth | Signal type | Business read |
|---|
| Query | Rising | TOP index |
|---|
Rising measures growth. TOP index measures relative popularity among related queries, not actual search volume.
Visible definitions for apples-to-apples interpretation
Competitorlist Custom Industry · United States · traffic channels, demand trends and demographics
What changed in current traffic momentum and player concentration
Brand rank inside Competitorlist Custom Industry · M/M shown where available
| Brand | Traffic share | Monthly visits | M/M | Q/Q | Y/Y | Direct traffic | PPC spend | Returning visitors |
|---|
M/M, Q/Q and Y/Y use the Similarweb Website Analysis Traffic Over Time monthly curve for Apr 2025-Jun 2026. Values are page-chart estimates for trend comparison.
Similarweb page monthly trend · 2026-06 vs 2026-05, 2026Q2 vs 2026Q1, 2026-06 vs 2025-06
| Brand | Jun 2026 visits | M/M | Q/Q | Y/Y | 2026Q2 visits | Source |
|---|
Monthly trend now covers all 12 Custom Industry players from the Traffic Over Time chart. Use this module for velocity; use Players for period-level size and share.
Brand-level channel mix across 10 core eBike domains
Brand-level channel mix uses Similarweb Website Analysis data for Jan-Jun 2026. The market rollups at right remain the Custom Industry benchmark.
Business-level acquisition buckets
Brand-level Similarweb Website Analysis data · 10 core eBike domains · Jan-Jun 2026
| Brand | Total Search | Paid media | Direct | Organic Search | Paid Search | Paid Social | Top channel |
|---|
Brand-level channel mix uses the earlier Similarweb Website Analysis scrape for the 10 core eBike domains. It is shown as peer context alongside the Custom Industry channel benchmark.
Non-Branded Keywords Top 100, grouped by search intent
| Theme | Terms | Clicks | Share | Median change |
|---|
Where demand is being captured today
| Leader group | Terms | Clicks | Share |
|---|
YouTube leads the top generic eBike terms, reinforcing the importance of reviews and creator content for early demand capture.
Which brands appear as the visible leader for Top 100 non-branded demand terms
| Domain | Traffic share | Leader terms | Leader share | Capture index | Captured terms |
|---|
Capture index compares demand-leader click share with traffic share. 100 means demand capture is proportional to current traffic share; below 100 means under-captured in visible Top 100 demand leaders.
Top 25 of the Similarweb visible Top 100
| Rank | Search term | Clicks | Share | Change | Theme | Leader |
|---|
Gender and age concentration by player
| Domain | Female | Male | 25-64 | 45+ | Female index |
|---|
How to use this signal in planning
Demand Trends currently reflects Non-Branded Keywords Top 100. Newly discovered / Trending terms were visible in UI but did not change with URL forcing during this scrape.
ImportYeti customs shipment matrix mapped to the Similarweb competitor list
Brand × month estimated units inferred from customs shipment counts and BOL quantity samples
| Brand | ImportYeti entity | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Estimated total | Status |
|---|
Pending cells mean the brand has shipment counts but no usable BOL quantity sample for unit calibration. Raw shipment counts remain in the workbook for audit.
What is usable now vs what still needs API/login access
H1 2026 monthly customs shipment counts, paired with all-time HS-code product segment mix
| Brand | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | H1 total | Segment mix | Status |
|---|
Segment mix uses ImportYeti Product Breakdown HS-code rows: Complete eBike / vehicle = HS 8711, Frame / bicycle = HS 8712, Parts / accessory = HS 8714 plus related parts/accessory codes, Battery / electrical = HS 8507 / 85, and Other captures non-core categories. Segment mix is all-time importer-page composition; monthly H1 trend is total customs shipments.
Visible ImportYeti summary data already captured from verified company pages
| Brand | ImportYeti entity | All-time sea shipments | Last shipment | Coverage | Country mix | Status |
|---|
This is the currently usable customs dataset. It is not H1-only and should be read as supply-side visibility, not market share or sell-through.
Recent shipment-level records with containers, quantity and plausibility-checked unit estimates
| Brand | Detail rows | H1 rows | H1 core rows | Usable unit rows | Date range | Containers | Raw quantity | Recent plausible units | H1 plausible units | Units / container |
|---|
This is the recent BOL detail sample exposed on the ImportYeti company page, not full historical shipment detail. Plausible units exclude rows with unsupported units or unrealistic units-per-container ratios.
Top ImportYeti product categories from the downloadable Product Breakdown chart data
| Brand | ImportYeti entity | Top HS code | Description | Shipments | Share | Chart |
|---|
HS code mix helps separate full e-bike / vehicle-related imports from batteries, parts and non-core categories.
Similarweb competitor domains mapped to customs importer pages
| Brand | Domain | Entity | Status | Attribution note |
|---|
All-time visible shipment totals captured before the pageview limit